Consequences of not thinking rigorously while building products!
In a small, lively village surrounded by beautiful forests and rivers, the villagers had a big problem with dangerous snakes. These snakes came into homes and fields, often scaring and hurting people.
The village leaders devised a plan they thought would solve the problem. They decided to pay money for every snake caught and brought to them. This plan seemed simple and effective at first.
The Decision
Excited by the reward, people of all ages started hunting snakes. Soon, they brought lots of snakes to the leaders, and everyone thought the problem was solved. This quick fix seemed to work.
Second-Order Effects
But as time passed, some smart villagers saw a chance to catch snakes and breed them for more rewards. This led to more snakes, not fewer.
The leaders, happy at first with all the snakes being caught, soon realized there were still too many snakes around. Their plan to make the village safer had the opposite effect.
Third-Order Effects
When the leaders suddenly stopped the reward program, those breeding snakes had no reason to keep them anymore. So, they let the snakes go into the wild, making the snake problem even more significant.
Also, the village faced more danger than ever, with more snakes around. The balance of nature was upset, too, affecting other animals and even plants because there were too many snakes.
Why This Story Matters
I'm telling you this story because it reminds me of a mistake (Among several others!!) I made at work.
I was working for a food-delivery startup, leading their driver experience and marketplace team. Based on a new operations operating model, we introduced fleet managers as new user personas to manage our drivers. Each fleet manager would be responsible for managing 20-25 drivers. We hypothesized that building a better product for people who manage delivery drivers would make the drivers disciplined, operations efficient, and a better customer experience. For 2 precious quarters, we focused on tools for these fleet managers rather than improving the product for our drivers.
My manager, who had the wisdom, had warned us that we should make our product flexible (Even suggesting not to build this fleet manager product !!) because a new operations leader might change how the operations model works, making our tools outdated or even redundant.
However, we had little time to build flexibility, and everyone else thought differently. So we spent 2 full quarters building products for fleet managers. The Operations Team was happy. For some time, we saw improvement in driver efficiency and a better customer experience through our products.
But my manager was right. We had to redo most things when a new operations leader joined 12 months later, ultimately changing our operations model. Fleet manager as a user persona didn't exist anymore.
We didn't think rigorously. We fell into the trap of not thinking about the 2nd and 3rd order effects of how our operations would look at scale.
Lessons for Product Managers
This snake story and my work experience teach important lessons:
Look Ahead: Always consider how the future can look and how it might affect your product.
Think through 2nd and 3rd-order effects: Understand that decisions can have unexpected outcomes, not just the good ones you hope for. Do rigorous thinking to unlock such scenarios.
Be Careful with Incentives: Incentives can change behaviours long term. Think about what behaviours your decisions might encourage. Could they lead to future problems?
Stay Flexible: Make sure you bake in flexibility to adapt to changes. Being flexible is crucial for avoiding big problems later.
The story of the village and the snakes is a lesson for all. It shows why thinking carefully about decisions is important and not just solving a short-term problem.